The Iranian Weapons

We now have two aircraft carrier battle groups sailing around the Persian Gulf, with two more on the way.

So, some anonymous briefers in Baghdad tell the American brass that Iran is supplying weapons to Iraqi "extremists and insurgents" to kill Americans.

The proof is supposedly shown in slides of 81 mm mortars. The Times released the information on Monday.
The heart of the Times article from Monday is,

In a news briefing held under strict security, the officials spread out on two small tables an E.F.P. and an array of mortar shells and rocket-propelled grenades with visible serial numbers that the officials said link the weapons directly to Iranian arms factories. The officials also asserted, without providing direct evidence, that Iranian leaders had authorized smuggling those weapons into Iraq for use against the Americans. The officials said such an assertion was an inference based on general intelligence assessments.

Needless to say, everybody's skeptical. First, there's the timing. If, as the anonymous briefers claim to have asserted, they linked the weapons to Iranian manufacture 2 years ago, why are they just getting around to talking about it now, the day of the House or Representatives debate on the President's escalation policy?

Secondly, Doesn't the Maliki government in Iraq have weapons exchange programs with the government of Iran, anyway? Just because the weapons were allegedly manufactured in Iran doesn't mean the Iranian government is supplying them to insurgents to attack Americans.

Third, those weapons don't necessarily look Iranian. Tony Snow insists there's no doubt by his "intelligence sources" that the weapons are of Iranian origin, but who will ever take his or BushCo's word for anything like that again? Also, there are doubts about the authenticity of some of the lettering and numbering on the shells that were displayed on the slides in Baghdad on Sunday.

Finally, there's a lot of skepticism now about whether or not any 81 mm mortars are manufactured in Iran at all. This website, purporting to offer the weapons in question, is set up with source code in English, and it has an IP address at a University in Iran.

My mind drifts back to the summer of 2004 when someone anonymously gave CBS news a supposed "copy" of George Bush's service record in the Texas Air National Guard.